Friday, May 30, 2008

Breaking New Records

It was Roy Castle who used to sing 'dedication's what you need... if you wanna be a record breaker'. Not sure it is dedication that results in the news today that Gordon Brown's Labour Party has now recorded the worst opinion poll rating for a UK political party since surveys began in 1943. The YouGov poll shows Labour on 23% while the Conservatives are on a very strong 47%. While the media lay the blame on voter concerns about a slowing economy, rising fuel and food prices, and of course the botched tax reform just prior to the Crewe & Nantwich by-election, there must be more to it mustn't there? There must be an understanding that the economic problems are not all Brown's making. So why is he not the man trusted to ride the storm? Is it the catalogue of errors that mar his short time as leader? Is it his wooden perfromance skills? Or is there a boredom with Labour and Brown's team? Conversely why are the Conservatives seen as being more able to manage the crisis? Is this due to a feelign that someone else deserves a chance? Is it about image and perception? Or is it anyone but Gordon? There are so many questions about Brown's popularity that opinion polls cannot answer sadly: any ideas?

6 comments:

Matt Hurst said...

Yougov's really dull repetitive surveys that are usually the same questions every single day of every single week.

Still 50p....

Praguetory said...

Bit of a desperate answer that, Matt. Yougov is the most accurate pollster. Here in the West Midlands Gordon is a source of ridicule.

Matt Hurst said...

It's not desperate, I know Gordon Brown's lost the country and the next election. I was just stating fact that Yougov is a really irratating pollster.

I'm not sure about it's accuracy eithier, i know it got the London Mayoral elections correct, but i think it was the first in a long time.

Anyhow didn't know you spoke for the whole of the West Midlands, or did you just check yougov.

Praguetory said...

Yougov has an excellent track record. It was also the dead on in the Conservative leadership race, got closest to the C&N result and of all the pollsters has consistently came closest to predicting local election results.

Yougov said...

Mr Hurst, could I respectfully suggest you leave the Yougov panel if you find the number of polls irritating. Due to the details you gave us you may find yourself polled frequently as you may represent a minority social group or a group that is of interest for particular studies. Normally this is beneficial to the panel member as they accrue rewards quickly; however if you find the frequency too much for you to handle do feel free to ignore and delete survey alerts or remove yourself from our database.
With regards to our accuracy, we were not only the most accurate predictor of the 2005 General Election but also of results across key marginal seats, thus quashing the various critics of having an online only panel. This is in addition to a range of highly successful contracts for consumer research.
I trust that you will take these points into account when criticising the company publicly. I thank Praguetory for the points they make and trust that the defence would be as unequivocal if the results were reversed.

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