Election Spin

The result in Henley last night was fairly predictable in terms of who was going to win, however it seems that Howell's doorstepping coupled with the Conservatives' popularity not only managed to increase their share of what was quite a respectable 50% turnout, but also depress the votes of the opposition and lead to switching away from Labour. But the most fascinating part of something like this is the spin that the candidates and their respective parties put on the result.

Predictably Howell, after of course highlighting the result also was based on local issues, commented "The British public has sent a message to Gordon Brown to 'get off our backs, stop the endless tax rises and help us cope with the rising cost of living'," albeit a small public this is the Conservative agenda and so any indication of support is useful. Really Howell's spin was fairly simple though, on the back of polling results and Crewe & Nantwich the Conservatives have control of the agenda and it is hard to argue that the collapse in the Labour vote is a local phenomena and not part of a wider picture.

Martin Salter seems to be the only Labour MP to have commented so far, while deflecting criticism on to the Liberal Democrat style of campaigning he remarked "It is very difficult to divine a clear message for Gordon Brown in a seat in which we had no chance at all. It is one of the worst seats for Labour in the country." This is the 'we had no chance, guv', play down the defeat, approach.

Nick Clegg, however, despite not making any impact on the Conservative majority, seemed the most positive: "Labour's days are well and truly over and it is the Liberal Democrats who are challenging the Conservatives in the south and Labour in the north," challenging yes, so far winning no.

The problem is that the media will decide how to play it and they are very much focusing on the disaster for Brown, coinciding as it does with being in Number 10 for a year; however the parties feel compelled to compete and position the contest in relation to their own goals, play down failure and play up victory.

All quiet on the Henley front

Henley voters go to the polling booth on Thursday, not that you would know it. Maybe it is because it is a safe seat, maybe because the candidates are doing nothing outrageous, but it is not on the media radar. But the candidates are not exactly striving for national media attention as was the case in Crewe & Nantwich. Conservative favourite John Howell's campaign is embedded within the local Conservatives' site and hinges around a video of him talking about his local-ness and how his concerns are those of the people he seeks to represent. LibDem Stephen Kearney offers similar selling points on his page of the Henley party site, but also opportunities to interact via Facebook and Twitter. Labour's Richard MacKenzie seems to have given up, the party page for him was last updated on 5th June announcing his selection.

The local paper takes a similarly subdued approach, it recognises visits from both David Cameron and Nick Clegg but for them the two Miss World contestants get more attention, though all the candidates, Cameron and Clegg have been interviewed by the newspaper and videos are on the site. But what it seems to lack is any real sense of a contest, the attitude is clear: this seat will not change hands so effort is minimal. Now this makes perfect sense in terms of preserving the campaign funds. But it should also lead to lower turnout and lower interest locally. Research on local voting suggests that voters need a reason to vote, and being asked to and made to feel important are both key to turnout. If effort and asking online equates to the same on the street, which is impossible to tell, Kearney seems most active while Howell is second. That is not going to be the result but if voters are mobilised by effort and there is a link then the LibDem vote could increase proportionately.

Keep it Local

The South Oxfordshire Conservative Association responsible for choosing the candidate to stand in the Henley by-election prompted by Boris Johnson's victory in London have decided not to select Boris' father Stanley, but instead have gone for a local candidate shortlist: though they have still to choose the actual candidate. The Chairman of the Association John Walsh claims, according to the BBC, that their reason for doing so is: "Where we have not chosen a local candidate the Liberal Democrats very much pick up on that and criticise it significantly. I think it is designed this time that nothing goes wrong. The primary importance is to make sure our electors turn out." An odd admission for a party riding high in the polls and fighting a safe seat. If marginal, unless of course there is a latent support for the Liberal Democrats and they are making a resurgence, it would be understandable but to think something might go wrong and admit it is unusual.

Meanwhile, and in true Liberal Democrat style, Stephen Kearney has a Facebook page, 10 supportive comments and 195 supporters (mostly from the party) and is positioning himself as the Champion for Henley; clearly it is increasingly the must have accessory for any serious candidate these days.