Saturday, June 30, 2007

Do polls tell us Brown would win?

The latest Yougov poll suggest a lead for Labour suggesting Gordon is enjoying a honeymoon as Prime Minister among voters, if not the media! This, the Telegraph argue, is a signal that the time is right for a snap election to dispel the question of how legitimate the Brown mandate is. But is this poll really saying that Brown enjoying unswerving support in the country. Reading the figures, the interesting aspect to these polls is that they are so mixed and, I would argued, could not seriously be used to predict an Election outcome.

While responses to the statement 'Who would make the better prime minister, Brown or Cameron' (which Brown wins 35 to 23) is indicative, more indicative are the 38% who don't know. Similarly on the 'forced choice' between voting Labour or Conservative, Labour wins 43 to 36, but there are 21% don't know. But consider these figures, 52% say it is possible for Gordon to make a fresh start, but 48% suggest he will be no better or no worse (the same as Blair then!). 41% say he will make no significant changes, there is a 40/40 split between yes he wants to meet the concerns aspirations of the country and no he doesn't. 57% say no Gordon is unlikely to restore trust in government.

So would you call I election if I were Gordon, well maybe. What this shows is a lot of uncertainly, the don't knows being a group that could go either way, but a degree of faith in Brown as a leader, a good manager perhaps. Cameron it seems does not yet possess the image the British voters are looking for and perhaps the Quentin Davies critique is one more widely shared. Sadly it appears that Brown is the best choice, but not because of his outstanding qualities or record, more that he is perceived currently as better than Cameron only.

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