Tuesday, July 22, 2008

A passing but timely blip

Gordon Brown and labour have reversed the trend in opinion, they have actually seen an increase in support overall, and crucially are leading in polls taken in Glasgow East where there will be voting in the by-election on Thursday. But is this a sign that Brown is going to seriously challenge Cameron's Conservatives again? I don't think so, rather this is a reaffirmation of support for Labour from those most concerned with world affairs and in particular the Middle East situation. Brown's carefully crafted position, a rare thing in recent months, placed him as firmly against any initiative that could damage a peace process from either side. He retains sympathetic to Israel, but criticised their tactics. I think this resonated among issue supporters and so won him support, as soon as the agenda swings back to domestic affairs this may well evaporate. Why, because I see no other reason for that increase in support other than his recent visit to the Middle East, this was new ground for him, but the old problems are still here at home and he will have to deal with those now he has returned. The big question then, will this blip carry him through Thursday?


Praguetory said...

Do you seriously think that foreign affairs issue are changing voter intentions? That's a fairly brave assertion I'd suggest.

Darren G Lilleker said...

I do get a sense that those who feel closest to Labour (qualification number one - always a sign of uncertainty) may be seeking a reason to support Brown. His stance seems to have gone down well in certain online circles; therefore extrapolating that to a traditional Labour seat, and we should not think of all these people as poor and drunk as the media like to present them, those who feel disillusioned may turn out due to a mixture of loyalty and the fact that Brown has said something they agree with.
It is interesting that while nothign else has changed, Brown's ratings nationally and locally to the by-election went up while he was in Israel. It's a thought!